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南京会议能否挑战美元霸主地位?(双语)

时间:2011-04-25 08:10:18   来源:    评论

  Nanjing is no Bretton Woods.

  南京不是布雷顿森林(Bretton Woods)。(译者注:二战后,在美国的布雷顿森林签订的《布雷顿森林协定》确立了以美元为中心的国际货币体系。)

  A meeting in China's former capital, called at the behest of France, was meant to bring together G-20 leaders to put the international monetary system to rights. The French perhaps thought they had common cause with China against the dominant role of the dollar in the international financial system.

  在中国古都南京召开的会议原本是为把二十国集团(G20)领导人召集到一起,改革国际货币体系。会议是应法国的要求召开的。法国人也许以为,在反对国际金融体系中美元霸主地位的问题上,他们和中国有着共同的目标。

  But if so, they thought wrong. Given that China holds $1.6 trillion in dollar debt, calling an end to the dollar's reign would hardly shore up the value of its investment. So Thursday's gathering was relegated from a leaders' summit in Beijing to a ministerial meeting in Nanjing. With a sprinkling of academics thrown in and discussion limited to a single day, the chances of any breakthrough results look small.

  不过,如果是这样,他们就想错了。鉴于中国持有1.6万亿美元美国国债,结束美元的统治地位不会增大中国投资的价值。因此,周四的会议从北京的领导人峰会降格为南京的部长级会议,还夹杂寥寥数位学术人士,而且讨论仅限于短短的一天,在这种情况下,取得任何突破性进展看起来几率都很小。

  In the absence of clear political will, contenders for the heavyweight reserve-currency crown will have to slug it out on their own merits. The reigning champion, weighing in at 61% of global reserves, is the dollar. With the world's largest economy, deep and liquid capital markets, and the benefit of incumbency, the dollar packs a powerful punch.

  在缺乏明确政治意志的情况下,争夺重量级外汇储备冠军的国家将不得不凭自己的实力决一雌雄。卫冕冠军是美元,占全球外汇储备的61%。美国是全球最大的经济体,美国有着资金雄厚、流动性良好的资本市场,加上美元卫冕冠军的优势,美元打出了有力的一击。

  But after a long time at the top, it is also looking a little flabby. The greenback's dominance means other countries have little choice but to hold their reserves in dollars. That let the U.S. live beyond its means in the buildup to the crisis, and finance a response with foreign capital. With a falling dollar now eroding the value of its debt, abuse of that privilege has won the U.S. few friends among its creditors.

  不过,在冠军的宝座上坐了很久后,美元看起来也有些不稳当了。美元的统治地位意味着其他国家别无选择,只能用美元作为外汇储备。这令美国在危机酝酿的过程中入不敷出,在应对危机时用外国的资金埋单。随着眼下不断贬值的美元令美国的债务缩水,滥用这种特权使美国在其债权国中不得人心。

  But contenders for the dollar's crown aren't yet at their fighting weight. The euro, with 26% of global reserves, is the leading challenger. But with its own debt problems, no proven mechanism for ensuring fiscal restraint among its members and no integrated financial market, the euro zone could be an even more irresponsible steward of the global financial system than the U.S.

  不过,挑战美元统治地位的争夺者尚不够份量。欧元在全球储备中占了26%,是最大的挑战者。不过,由于欧元区自身的债务问题,以及缺乏能够确保成员国实施财政紧缩措施的有效机制,缺乏统一的金融市场,相比美国,欧元区可能是全球金融体系更加不负责任的监管人。

  That leaves China. Progress toward an international role for the yuan has been rapid. In 2010, $76 billion in trade transactions were settled in yuan, up from less than $1 billion in 2009. But there is a big difference between a trade-settlement currency and a reserve currency. As the world's biggest exporter, there is no reason why China can't demand payment in yuan for its goods. But with a closed capital account and continued control over the exchange rate, there is little prospect that it will be able to establish the yuan as a reserve currency.

  接下来就是中国。人民币的国际化步伐一直很快。2010年,有760亿美元贸易以人民币结算,较2009年不到10亿美元大幅增加。不过,贸易结算货币和储备货币之间有着巨大的区别。作为全球最大的出口国,没有理由说中国不能要求用人民币买其商品。不过,在资本金帐户封闭、汇率受到持续控制的情况下,人民币成为储备货币的可能性非常小。

  The dollar might not be in fighting shape, but with the other contenders still in the featherweight division, it will be a while before the U.S. has to surrender the reserve-currency crown.

  美元或许已经没有战斗力了,但在其他挑战者仍处于羽量级的情况下,美国拱手让出储备货币的桂冠还有待时日。

关键字:南京 会议 能否

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